Chelsea vs Arsenal FA Cup Final preview

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So here it is, Chelsea vs Arsenal in the FA Cup final. A big day for Chelsea and arguably an even more important moment for Arsenal. So how are both clubs shaping up for the final, and most importantly what is the predicted outcome?

Let’s start with Arsenal, how will they be feeling leading up to the final? All things considered they should be more confident than at any other stage of the season to take on Chelsea.

Arteta’s start at Arsenal was rocky… a 1-1 draw with Bournemouth. Over his whole 27 matches as manager, he has seen 15 wins.

Even if the Europa League did not work out for Arteta, it’s hard to ignore his great run, winning all games leading up to the FA Cup final. His record could be seen as ‘standard’ at best due to the expectations placed on managing a club like Arsenal. But this does him a disservice. He did not take over the ‘Arsenal invincibles’, it could be argued he took over a side worse off than when Wenger left.

There is becoming a clear direction Arsenal are heading in. Playing a squad that passes out from the back and which is seeing youth potential starting to really break through. For example, the likes of Saka.

But Arsenal’s defensive frailties can’t be ignored, especially in central defence. Defenders such as Mustafi and Luiz bring in mixed performances at best. And they are vulnerable to individual mistakes.

Photo provided through Arsenal's official website

As mentioned briefly earlier, this game could be seen as more important to Arsenal than it is for Chelsea.

To Chelsea, this is a highly sought-after cup. To Arsenal it’s also a chance to get into the Europa League. Admittedly it’s not the Champions league, but it’s a European competition.

Being in the Europa League financially helps Arsenal. On the official UEFA website, for the Europa League, each of the 48 clubs receive a “group stage allocation of €2.92m” (£2.65m). Plus, additional revenue for winning games and even larger payments by progressing to the cup final.

Europa League also helps a club attract better players and further push the Arsenal brand to those outside the UK.

Photo provided through The Telegraph website

Now onto Chelsea, and how they are faring in preparation for the FA Cup final?

For all the work Arteta has put into Arsenal, the odds will surely be in Chelsea’s favour – the bookies favourite at 23/20 to win the final. Overall Chelsea have performed better this season compared to Arsenal, and managed to scrape a top 4 finish, whereas Arsenal were left in the dust finishing in 8th place.

Arsenal beat Chelsea in their last FA Cup Final meeting (2017), with a 2-1 win; however, a better ‘cup final’ meeting between the clubs to compare against would be the Europa League final. Even though it was a recent meeting, being the last game both sides played in the 18/19 season, both clubs now play different football compared to a year ago, so actually it’s hard to even argue that the Europa League final last year can help predict any outcome for this final.

Chelsea beat Arsenal in the first meeting of Lampard vs Arteta. And a well-earned 2-2 for Arsenal in January shows how close Chelsea and Arsenal can be when playing against each other.

Photo provided through the Evening Standard website

The biggest factor to consider when predicting the FA cup final for Chelsea should be the ‘Lampard Factor’. After the 4-0 opening day defeat against Manchester United in Lampard’s first competitive match, he was already on the back foot.

But since then he has transformed Chelsea into a stubborn team, playing counter attacking football. And most importantly he has bled youth into the Chelsea starting 11. An achievement not seen on this scale in the Abramovich era before.

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Lampard has managed 53 matches as Chelsea manager, with a Points Per Match average of 1.79. He has won 29 matches, drawn 8 and lost 16. A good return for his first year.

All this evidence suggests Chelsea should be confident for the final; however, an area of considerable weakness lies in defence. In the Premier League Chelsea have conceded 54 goals this year. In the top 4 the second worst defence is Manchester United with 36 goals conceded. Arsenal have in the Premier League this season conceded 48 - showing both sides weakness in defence.

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The only area where I’d say Chelsea go into the final with a clear advantage is in midfield. Chelsea’s midfield shows more strength in depth.

I would usually talk of Chelsea’s goalkeeper, Kepa, as another poor aspect of the team. However, it is far more likely Caballero will start instead. A more-steady goalkeeper going off recent form. However, not performing to the same levels that Arsenals goalkeeper Martínez has performed recently.

Photo provided through The Times website

This century Chelsea and Arsenal have faced each other twice in the FA Cup final. Arsenal have won both. But who do I suspect will win this showdown?

For me it’s Chelsea, though with a big asterisk next to it.

Photo provided through NBC Sports website

Due to both sides’ defensive issues, and attacking forces, this game could be seen as a high scoring match. However, because of importance of the final, like any final, it most likely will boil down to a cagey affair. A game where neither side will want to go in all guns blazing because of their defensive vulnerabilities.

I expect a tight match. One that I can easily see going to extra time. It is a trophy which will mean a lot to either manager. And a match that can define and affect the future success of both teams and managers.